MICRO NODETimestamp: October 9, 2002

MU

Micron Technology

Memory Cycle Bust

UNJUSTIFIED PANIC

SemiconductorsMemoryCyclicalAI

The Catalyst

“Micron is the poster child for boom-and-bust cycles. After the Dot-com bubble burst, memory prices collapsed due to massive oversupply. The stock lost 98% of its value, trading for pennies as competitors went bankrupt. **Macro Context:** 10Y Treasury Yield: 3.61%”

The Aftermath

“Decades of consolidation left only three major memory players (Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix). The AI boom created insatiable demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), leading to a 'supercycle' that finally drove Micron to new all-time highs.”

Company Profile

Fundamental Overview (Current)

About

Micron Technology, Inc. is an American producer of computer memory and computer data storage including dynamic random-access memory, flash memory, and USB flash drives. It is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.

Sector

TECHNOLOGY

Industry

SEMICONDUCTORS

Market Cap

$481.91B

P/E Ratio

40.66

Beta

1.50

Div Yield

0.11%

52W High

$455.5

52W Low

$61.42

Hindsight Engine

Normalization of Historical Volatility Clusters

Entry Delta

-42.5%

Recovery Alpha

+3738.4%

Reference Peak

$19.27

Pre-Panic High

Panic Floor

$11.08

Moment of Capitulation

Drawdown Magnitude

-42.5%

Peak-to-Trough Delta

Alpha from Bottom

+3,738.357%

Total Return Delta

Macro Environment

Economic Indicators at Time of Event

Fed Funds Rate

1.73%

Inflation

1.59%

Unemployment

5.70%

10Y Treasury

3.61%

2Y Treasury

1.72%

30Y Treasury

4.95%

CPI

181.30%

Earnings Catalyst

Quarterly Report Data

Q4 2002Reported Sep 24, 2002

Reported EPS

$-0.18

Estimated EPS

$-0.18

Surprise

+0.00

Surprise %

+0.0%

Anatomy of the Crash

Sentiment Breakdown & Strategic Pivot Points

Stage 01: The Fear

At the lows, sentiment was capitulatory and flow was dominated by forced deleveraging, downgrades, and recession-style positioning. The market effectively priced a near-worst-case path, with drawdown conditions near -98.4% from the local pre-event level.

Stage 02: The Turnaround

Decades of consolidation left only three major memory players (Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix).

Stage 03: Opportunity

The selloff was an overreaction: panic pricing implied durable impairment, but realized outcomes were materially better than the trough consensus. From the panic low to the current level, the asset recovered roughly 26433.1% after a drawdown of about -98.4%, illustrating how forced selling detached price from fundamentals.