SHAK
Shake Shack
Earnings Panic
The Catalyst
“Shake Shack shares dipped after reporting a rare 'double miss' on both earnings and revenue expectations. Investors panicked over a slight deceleration in same-store sales growth, fearing the brand's premium burger expansion had finally hit its ceiling. **Macro Context:** 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.25% **Earnings Context:** Reported EPS $0.14 vs Est $0.09 (Surprise: 55.5556%)”
The Aftermath
“The sell-off was a temporary valuation reset. Driven by record digital sales and a highly successful roll-out of drive-thru locations, Shake Shack's margins expanded dramatically, sending the stock to a record all-time high of $142 within just two months.”
Company Profile
Fundamental Overview (Current)
About
Shake Shack Inc. owns, operates and licenses Shake Shack restaurants (Shacks) in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
Sector
CONSUMER CYCLICAL
Industry
RESTAURANTS
Market Cap
$3.99B
P/E Ratio
91.73
Beta
1.75
Div Yield
—
52W High
$144.65
52W Low
$72.93
Hindsight Engine
Normalization of Historical Volatility Clusters
Entry Delta
-22.1%
Recovery Alpha
Active
Reference Peak
$97.31
Pre-Panic High
Panic Floor
$75.85
Moment of Capitulation
Drawdown Magnitude
-22.1%
Peak-to-Trough Delta
Recovery Progress
82.5%
Path to Breakeven
Macro Environment
Economic Indicators at Time of Event
Fed Funds Rate
4.33%
Inflation
—
Unemployment
4.30%
10Y Treasury
4.25%
2Y Treasury
3.70%
30Y Treasury
4.74%
CPI
321.46%
Earnings Catalyst
Quarterly Report Data
Reported EPS
$0.14
Estimated EPS
$0.09
Surprise
+0.05
Surprise %
+55.6%
Anatomy of the Crash
Sentiment Breakdown & Strategic Pivot Points
Stage 01: The Fear
At the lows, sentiment was capitulatory and flow was dominated by forced deleveraging, downgrades, and recession-style positioning. The market effectively priced a near-worst-case path, with drawdown conditions near -13.6% from the local pre-event level.
Stage 02: The Turnaround
The sell-off was a temporary valuation reset.
Stage 03: Opportunity
The selloff was an overreaction: panic pricing implied durable impairment, but realized outcomes were materially better than the trough consensus. From the panic low to the current level, the asset recovered roughly -1.5% after a drawdown of about -13.6%, illustrating how forced selling detached price from fundamentals.
Recovery Timeline
Temporal Velocity Analysis
Days to Absolute Bottom
0
Trading Days
Days to Full Recovery
60
Trading Days
The Panic Files
Archived Media Narrative Context
Insider Activity
Corporate Insider Transactions ±30 Days
Before Event
Net Shares
0
Acquisitions
0
Disposals
0
After Event
Net Shares
-16,191
Acquisitions
0
Disposals
4