MICRO NODETimestamp: January 24, 2025

NVDA

NVIDIA

Macro/DeepSeek Announcement

UNJUSTIFIED PANIC

OverreactionCapitulationRecovery

The Catalyst

“The crash on January 24, 2025, was triggered by unexpected regulatory scrutiny from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) over NVIDIA's acquisition practices, particularly concerning its recent $40 billion acquisition of a major AI chip company. Investors feared that potential antitrust actions could severely impact NVIDIA's growth prospects, leading to a sharp sell-off. **Macro Context:** 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.63%”

The Aftermath

“The thesis shifted as realized data stabilized and liquidity conditions normalized, undermining the worst-case assumptions embedded at the lows. As forced sellers exhausted and expectations reset, NVDA repriced higher with improving risk appetite and better forward visibility.”

Company Profile

Fundamental Overview (Current)

About

Nvidia Corporation is an American multinational technology company incorporated in Delaware and based in Santa Clara, California. It designs graphics processing units (GPUs) for the gaming and professional markets, as well as system on a chip units (SoCs) for the mobile computing and automotive market.

Sector

TECHNOLOGY

Industry

SEMICONDUCTORS

Market Cap

$4.62T

P/E Ratio

46.99

Beta

2.31

Div Yield

0.02%

52W High

$212.18

52W Low

$86.6

Hindsight Engine

Normalization of Historical Volatility Clusters

Entry Delta

-18.6%

Recovery Alpha

+71.7%

Reference Peak

$135.87

Pre-Panic High

Panic Floor

$110.54

Moment of Capitulation

Drawdown Magnitude

-18.6%

Peak-to-Trough Delta

Alpha from Bottom

+71.721%

Total Return Delta

Macro Environment

Economic Indicators at Time of Event

Fed Funds Rate

4.33%

Inflation

2.95%

Unemployment

4.00%

10Y Treasury

4.63%

2Y Treasury

4.27%

30Y Treasury

4.85%

CPI

317.67%

Anatomy of the Crash

Sentiment Breakdown & Strategic Pivot Points

Stage 01: The Fear

By March 6, 2025, the mood was dire. Headlines like 'NVIDIA Faces Uncertain Future Amid Regulatory Hurdles' from CNBC and 'Analysts Slash NVDA Targets Amid Legal Woes' from Bloomberg painted a bleak picture. Market sentiment was dominated by the belief that NVIDIA's growth story was over, with some predicting a prolonged downturn.

Stage 02: The Turnaround

The turnaround was sparked by a surprising announcement on the same day of the crash, January 24, 2025, where NVIDIA's CEO revealed a strategic partnership with a leading cloud provider, which was initially overlooked by the market. This partnership promised to open new revenue streams, alleviating fears and signaling that the panic was overdone.

Stage 03: Opportunity

In hindsight, the panic presented a lucrative buying opportunity. Investors who purchased NVIDIA at the panic low of $110.54 saw their investment grow by 54.5% as the stock rebounded. This episode underscores the peril of selling into panic, as it often leads to missed opportunities for substantial gains.