DE
Deere & Company
Earnings Panic
The Catalyst
“Deere & Co shares plummeted as the agricultural giant lowered its full-year profit guidance for the second time, citing a sharp decline in farm income and softening demand for large farm equipment. The market feared a multi-year cyclical downturn in agriculture. **Macro Context:** 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.38% **Earnings Context:** Reported EPS $8.53 vs Est $7.92 (Surprise: 7.702%)”
The Aftermath
“Management correctly identified the bottom of the farm cycle. As commodity prices stabilized and Deere's precision agriculture technology drove replacement demand for higher-margin equipment, the stock executed a massive V-shaped recovery to new record highs by 2026.”
Company Profile
Fundamental Overview (Current)
About
John Deere is the brand name of Deere & Company, an American corporation that manufactures agricultural, construction, and forestry machinery, diesel engines, drivetrains (axles, transmissions, gearboxes) used in heavy equipment, and lawn care equipment.
Sector
INDUSTRIALS
Industry
FARM & HEAVY CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY
Market Cap
$179.58B
P/E Ratio
35.85
Beta
1.00
Div Yield
0.98%
52W High
$674.19
52W Low
$400.36
Hindsight Engine
Normalization of Historical Volatility Clusters
Entry Delta
-13.4%
Recovery Alpha
+86.6%
Reference Peak
$410
Pre-Panic High
Panic Floor
$355
Moment of Capitulation
Drawdown Magnitude
-13.4%
Peak-to-Trough Delta
Alpha from Bottom
+86.617%
Total Return Delta
Macro Environment
Economic Indicators at Time of Event
Fed Funds Rate
5.33%
Inflation
2.95%
Unemployment
3.90%
10Y Treasury
4.38%
2Y Treasury
4.78%
30Y Treasury
4.52%
CPI
314.07%
Earnings Catalyst
Quarterly Report Data
Reported EPS
$8.53
Estimated EPS
$7.92
Surprise
+0.61
Surprise %
+7.7%
Anatomy of the Crash
Sentiment Breakdown & Strategic Pivot Points
Stage 01: The Fear
At the lows, sentiment was capitulatory and flow was dominated by forced deleveraging, downgrades, and recession-style positioning. The market effectively priced a near-worst-case path, with drawdown conditions near -13.4% from the local pre-event level.
Stage 02: The Turnaround
Management correctly identified the bottom of the farm cycle.
Stage 03: Opportunity
The selloff was an overreaction: panic pricing implied durable impairment, but realized outcomes were materially better than the trough consensus. From the panic low to the current level, the asset recovered roughly 89.9% after a drawdown of about -13.4%, illustrating how forced selling detached price from fundamentals.
Recovery Timeline
Temporal Velocity Analysis
Days to Absolute Bottom
13
Trading Days
Days to Full Recovery
131
Trading Days
Sentiment Signals
AI-Scored News During Panic Window
Deere Q2 results top Street but it cuts 2024 profit outlook again as farmers buy fewer tractors
John Deere financial services sees 479% income surge
Deere Cuts Outlook Again as Farm Equipment Demand Drops
John Deere Cyber Recruiting Program Gets White House’s Attention
The Panic Files
Archived Media Narrative Context
Insider Activity
Corporate Insider Transactions ±30 Days
Before Event
Net Shares
+5,793
Acquisitions
1
Disposals
0
After Event
Net Shares
-278
Acquisitions
0
Disposals
2
Historical Memory
Recursive Panic Patterns for DE
DE
Deere & Company
INDUSTRIALS
Earnings/Guidance
Pre-Panic Peak
$522.88
Panic Bottom
$440.36
Current Price
$662.49
DE
Deere & Company
INDUSTRIALS
Commodity Crash
Pre-Panic Peak
$180
Panic Bottom
$111
Current Price
$662.49
DE
Deere & Company
INDUSTRIALS
COVID Agricultural Equipment Panic
Pre-Panic Peak
$151.9
Panic Bottom
$102.37
Current Price
$662.49