DE
Deere & Company
Commodity Crash
The Catalyst
“Agricultural commodity prices crashed along with oil, threatening farmer income. Deere stock fell 40% as the market anticipated a collapse in equipment sales. **Macro Context:** 10Y Treasury Yield: 1.18%”
The Aftermath
“Crop prices roared back due to supply chain issues and geopolitical tension. Farmers used record incomes to upgrade fleets with Deere's autonomous tractors. The company's 'precision ag' tech strategy drove margin expansion and a massive stock rally.”
Company Profile
Fundamental Overview (Current)
About
John Deere is the brand name of Deere & Company, an American corporation that manufactures agricultural, construction, and forestry machinery, diesel engines, drivetrains (axles, transmissions, gearboxes) used in heavy equipment, and lawn care equipment.
Sector
INDUSTRIALS
Industry
FARM & HEAVY CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY
Market Cap
$179.58B
P/E Ratio
35.85
Beta
1.00
Div Yield
0.98%
52W High
$674.19
52W Low
$400.36
Hindsight Engine
Normalization of Historical Volatility Clusters
Entry Delta
-38.3%
Recovery Alpha
+496.8%
Reference Peak
$180
Pre-Panic High
Panic Floor
$111
Moment of Capitulation
Drawdown Magnitude
-38.3%
Peak-to-Trough Delta
Alpha from Bottom
+496.838%
Total Return Delta
Macro Environment
Economic Indicators at Time of Event
Fed Funds Rate
0.25%
Inflation
1.23%
Unemployment
4.40%
10Y Treasury
1.18%
2Y Treasury
0.54%
30Y Treasury
1.77%
CPI
258.12%
Earnings Catalyst
Quarterly Report Data
Reported EPS
$1.63
Estimated EPS
$1.27
Surprise
+0.36
Surprise %
+28.3%
Anatomy of the Crash
Sentiment Breakdown & Strategic Pivot Points
Stage 01: The Fear
At the lows, sentiment was capitulatory and flow was dominated by forced deleveraging, downgrades, and recession-style positioning. The market effectively priced a near-worst-case path, with drawdown conditions near -38.3% from the local pre-event level.
Stage 02: The Turnaround
Crop prices roared back due to supply chain issues and geopolitical tension.
Stage 03: Opportunity
The selloff was an overreaction: panic pricing implied durable impairment, but realized outcomes were materially better than the trough consensus. From the panic low to the current level, the asset recovered roughly 496.8% after a drawdown of about -38.3%, illustrating how forced selling detached price from fundamentals.
Recovery Timeline
Temporal Velocity Analysis
Days to Absolute Bottom
0
Trading Days
Days to Full Recovery
133
Trading Days
The Panic Files
Archived Media Narrative Context
Insider Activity
Corporate Insider Transactions ±30 Days
Before Event
Net Shares
+1,321
Acquisitions
10
Disposals
2
After Event
Net Shares
0
Acquisitions
0
Disposals
0
Historical Memory
Recursive Panic Patterns for DE
DE
Deere & Company
INDUSTRIALS
Earnings/Guidance
Pre-Panic Peak
$522.88
Panic Bottom
$440.36
Current Price
$662.49
DE
Deere & Company
INDUSTRIALS
Earnings Panic
Pre-Panic Peak
$410
Panic Bottom
$355
Current Price
$662.49
DE
Deere & Company
INDUSTRIALS
COVID Agricultural Equipment Panic
Pre-Panic Peak
$151.9
Panic Bottom
$102.37
Current Price
$662.49