MPWR
Monolithic Power Systems
Earnings Panic
The Catalyst
“Monolithic Power Systems plunged 18% after reporting Q3 results and issuing an outlook that disappointed an AI-hungry market. Concerns over competition in the AI power management space and a valuation 'reset' triggered a massive sell-off. **Macro Context:** 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.28% **Earnings Context:** Reported EPS $4.06 vs Est $3.97 (Surprise: 2.267%)”
The Aftermath
“The sell-off was a severe mispricing of MPWR's technological lead in high-performance power solutions. As the company maintained its dominant share in NVIDIA Blackwell clusters, earnings surged, driving the stock to new all-time highs above $1,200 by early 2026.”
Company Profile
Fundamental Overview (Current)
About
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. is an American, publicly traded company headquartered in Kirkland, Washington. The company provides power circuits for systems found in cloud computing, telecom infrastructures, automotive, industrial applications and consumer applications.
Sector
TECHNOLOGY
Industry
SEMICONDUCTORS
Market Cap
$58.65B
P/E Ratio
94.37
Beta
1.46
Div Yield
0.53%
52W High
$1,250
52W Low
$436.42
Hindsight Engine
Normalization of Historical Volatility Clusters
Entry Delta
-43.0%
Recovery Alpha
+122.5%
Reference Peak
$950
Pre-Panic High
Panic Floor
$541.08
Moment of Capitulation
Drawdown Magnitude
-43.0%
Peak-to-Trough Delta
Alpha from Bottom
+122.536%
Total Return Delta
Macro Environment
Economic Indicators at Time of Event
Fed Funds Rate
4.83%
Inflation
2.95%
Unemployment
4.10%
10Y Treasury
4.28%
2Y Treasury
4.16%
30Y Treasury
4.47%
CPI
315.66%
Earnings Catalyst
Quarterly Report Data
Reported EPS
$4.06
Estimated EPS
$3.97
Surprise
+0.09
Surprise %
+2.3%
Anatomy of the Crash
Sentiment Breakdown & Strategic Pivot Points
Stage 01: The Fear
At the lows, sentiment was capitulatory and flow was dominated by forced deleveraging, downgrades, and recession-style positioning. The market effectively priced a near-worst-case path, with drawdown conditions near -21.1% from the local pre-event level.
Stage 02: The Turnaround
The sell-off was a severe mispricing of MPWR's technological lead in high-performance power solutions.
Stage 03: Opportunity
The selloff was an overreaction: panic pricing implied durable impairment, but realized outcomes were materially better than the trough consensus. From the panic low to the current level, the asset recovered roughly 64.0% after a drawdown of about -21.1%, illustrating how forced selling detached price from fundamentals.
Recovery Timeline
Temporal Velocity Analysis
Days to Absolute Bottom
20
Trading Days
Days to Full Recovery
340
Trading Days
The Panic Files
Archived Media Narrative Context
Insider Activity
Corporate Insider Transactions ±30 Days
Before Event
Net Shares
-13,500
Acquisitions
0
Disposals
30
After Event
Net Shares
-8,644
Acquisitions
0
Disposals
18
Historical Memory
Recursive Panic Patterns for MPWR
MPWR
Monolithic Power Systems
TECHNOLOGY
Earnings/Guidance
Pre-Panic Peak
$735
Panic Bottom
$650
Current Price
$1,204.1
MPWR
Monolithic Power Systems
TECHNOLOGY
Power Semiconductor Crash
Pre-Panic Peak
$540.49
Panic Bottom
$301.54
Current Price
$1,204.1