MICRO NODETimestamp: May 1, 2024

MPWR

Monolithic Power Systems

Earnings/Guidance

UNJUSTIFIED PANIC

SemiconductorsAI InfrastructurePower ManagementGrowth

The Catalyst

“Monolithic Power shares tumbled 11% after the company provided a quarterly outlook that featured slower-than-expected growth in its enterprise and AI infrastructure segments. Investors, accustomed to massive beats, panicked over potential competition in high-performance power management. **Macro Context:** 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.63% **Earnings Context:** Reported EPS $2.81 vs Est $2.66 (Surprise: 5.6391%)”

The Aftermath

“The growth 'slowdown' was a temporary capacity hurdle. MPWR's technological lead in power density for AI chips proved unassailable, and as the 2025 AI data center buildout accelerated, the stock nearly doubled from its panic lows.”

Company Profile

Fundamental Overview (Current)

About

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. is an American, publicly traded company headquartered in Kirkland, Washington. The company provides power circuits for systems found in cloud computing, telecom infrastructures, automotive, industrial applications and consumer applications.

Sector

TECHNOLOGY

Industry

SEMICONDUCTORS

Market Cap

$58.65B

P/E Ratio

94.37

Beta

1.46

Div Yield

0.53%

52W High

$1,250

52W Low

$436.42

Hindsight Engine

Normalization of Historical Volatility Clusters

Entry Delta

-11.6%

Recovery Alpha

+85.2%

Reference Peak

$735

Pre-Panic High

Panic Floor

$650

Moment of Capitulation

Drawdown Magnitude

-11.6%

Peak-to-Trough Delta

Alpha from Bottom

+85.246%

Total Return Delta

Macro Environment

Economic Indicators at Time of Event

Fed Funds Rate

5.33%

Inflation

2.95%

Unemployment

3.90%

10Y Treasury

4.63%

2Y Treasury

4.96%

30Y Treasury

4.74%

CPI

314.07%

Earnings Catalyst

Quarterly Report Data

Q1 2024Reported May 1, 2024

Reported EPS

$2.81

Estimated EPS

$2.66

Surprise

+0.15

Surprise %

+5.6%

Anatomy of the Crash

Sentiment Breakdown & Strategic Pivot Points

Stage 01: The Fear

At the lows, sentiment was capitulatory and flow was dominated by forced deleveraging, downgrades, and recession-style positioning. The market effectively priced a near-worst-case path, with drawdown conditions near -11.6% from the local pre-event level.

Stage 02: The Turnaround

The growth 'slowdown' was a temporary capacity hurdle.

Stage 03: Opportunity

The selloff was an overreaction: panic pricing implied durable impairment, but realized outcomes were materially better than the trough consensus. From the panic low to the current level, the asset recovered roughly 75.1% after a drawdown of about -11.6%, illustrating how forced selling detached price from fundamentals.